The American fiddling with Starshield, the military-grade version of Starlink, over Ukrainian skies is prompting a backlash in Europe against the Elon Musk-owned satellite network that may ultimately challenge Musk’s dream of satellite communications dominance. In the near term, however, American restrictions also offer Russia’s Starlink equivalent, Rassvet, a chance to make a battlefield impact.

The direct challenge to Musk comes from Finnish tech companies Nokia and ICEYE, which have signed a letter of intent with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence to explore developing sovereign satellite communications capabilities. In a similar vein, the EU says it will accelerate development of its IRIS² satellite communications constellation. Both moves reflect growing European concerns about the political reliability of Starlink and its related services.

Nokia and ICEYE are positioning themselves as suppliers of sovereign satellite systems that will give governments control over their own satellites, ground stations and terminals so they are not subject to the whims of foreign governments.

Starshield service for Ukraine has been restricted without notice, according to Ukrainian officials. The restrictions have hindered Ukrainian drone operations and complicated defenses against Russian drone and missile strikes. President Trump and Elon Musk have each denied responsibility for the restrictions, with Musk pointing to U.S. government control of Starshield and Trump saying Musk had restored service. Reports indicate the decision originated within the White House, although responsibility remains disputed.

The restrictions mean the Trump administration can claim it is still supplying Starshield access to Ukraine. In reality, limits on connectivity for terminals traveling faster than approximately 100 mph mean Ukraine’s drone interceptors can lose their connections while attempting to catch jet-powered Shahed drones now being used to attack Ukraine, for example. Ukrainian forces have reported interrupted missions and lost control of drones because of the restrictions.

From a European perspective, the political dodgeball antics hardly matter, as the unreliability of Starlink access has already been demonstrated.

“Ukraine needs secure, sovereign and high-performance satellite communications systems that it controls,” says ICEYE CEO Rafal Modrzewski. Nokia Defense chairman Mikko Hautala echoed those sentiments by saying the project would give Ukraine “control over the connectivity it depends on.”

ICEYE already appears to be in an antagonistic position with Russia. On October 17 and 18, a Russian military satellite called Kosmos 2612 executed a series of maneuvers to shadow ICEYE-X36, a commercial synthetic aperture radar satellite that provides intelligence to the Ukrainian military. Kosmos 2612 closed from a distance of several hundred kilometers to within close proximity of the Finnish company’s satellite before backing off. Orbital tracking estimates suggest the closest approach may have been within several hundred meters, although the exact separation remains uncertain. Defense analysts noted that such co-orbital shadowing raises concerns about potential surveillance and interference. The close-proximity pursuit marks an increase in orbital gray-zone friction. The incident comes in the wake of a U.S. announcement that it has deployed space weapons in orbit, without identifying the systems involved.

Meanwhile, the EU’s IRIS² (Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite) has already been in development for several years. IRIS² now has newfound urgency in the wake of the Starshield restrictions.

“Hey, @elonmusk, big man, are you playing politics with your products again? As your European customers, we are watching you,” posted Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski on X. Poland pays for a large share of Ukrainian access to Starlink.

The sharp comment is indicative of Europe’s current dependence on Starlink, especially in regard to its armed forces. IRIS² is meant to change the equation. The IRIS² network will have 348 satellites, 330 in low Earth orbit and 18 in medium Earth orbit. The expanded plans include 66 additional satellites within that total, intended to strengthen defense, security and emergency services. The initial focus is on government and military use, with the first launches scheduled for 2029. The program also includes plans for quantum-secure communications technologies. It is widely seen as an important step toward European independence.

Independent of IRIS², Germany plans an initial constellation of up to 40 satellites, dubbed “flying Fritzboxes,” that will provide communications coverage for NATO’s eastern flank.

These new satellite constellations will take time to deploy. In the near term, Rassvet, Russia’s version of Starlink, is targeting commercial service in 2027. Rassvet is a dual-use system being developed by Russia’s Bureau 1440, with analysts pointing to Russian dependence on Chinese technology and components. The low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation began launching operational satellites earlier in 2026, although deployment has fallen behind schedule and some satellites have encountered technical difficulties.

If deployed at scale, Rassvet could give Russia a military edge if Starshield becomes unavailable entirely or its use continues to be restricted by the Trump administration and/or Elon Musk. Rassvet could significantly improve Russia’s ability to coordinate drone and missile strikes across Ukraine.

That would be a remarkable turn of affairs, as development of Rassvet gained new urgency after SpaceX and Ukraine blocked unauthorized Starlink terminals used by Russia at the beginning of 2026.

The finger-pointing is likely to continue as congressional leaders from both sides of the aisle express outrage over the restrictions and demand answers. A bipartisan group of senators has called for an investigation, while Sen. Richard Blumenthal has opened a separate inquiry into Starlink and Starshield. Musk, meanwhile, has warned that he will “come for” those he believes are behind investigations of his businesses. In the meantime, the consequences of the Starshield controversy could ultimately be measured in Ukrainian civilian lives lost.