Need a drone to attack an adversary? Getting one is now as easy as ordering one from Amazon. That’s the e-commerce-style intent behind a new digital storefront for the U.S. military called the Unmanned Aircraft Systems Marketplace, developed with help from Amazon Web Services (AWS). The Pentagon believes that this easy-shopping move is a massive step forward from traditional procurement procedures that more often than not experience significant delays. And just like with Amazon, soldiers can give drones a one-to-five star rating. Current trends suggest soldiers may soon be ordering in bulk. Drone swarms capable of formation flying are now ready to buzz battlefields like a bunch of killer bees.
There is no doubt that drones are having a revolutionary impact on warfare. What’s more, the pace of technological development is breathtaking. In the Ukraine/Russian conflict, Ukraine drone operators say that any tech edge lasts about a week. The next level in drone tech may be just about numbers: massive drone swarms controlled by a single operator with an AI assist.
While it’s evident that drones in existing conflicts have had a major impact on current military operations, it’s becoming apparent that drone swarms may shape the battlefield of the near future. China, for example, demonstrated on March 25 its Atlas drone system that can release a drone every three seconds. A single Atlas system can accommodate as many as 96 drones with variable payloads tasked with different missions ranging from reconnaissance to strike execution. The idea is to release a swarm of drones that can act in concert in combat while overwhelming any defense with sheer numbers. An added twist is that the Atlas drones can be re-assigned in mid-flight if changing battlefield situations warrant it.
The Atlas drone launcher reflects a shift in military doctrine toward networked drone swarms operating as a unified combat force. But it’s also indicative of the war China may expect to fight against Taiwan which has a military that is not expected to launch attacks of its own on the Chinese mainland. Taiwan has essentially adopted a “porcupine” defense strategy in the hopes of deterring any Chinese aggression. But the obvious success of drones against a stronger military power has not gone unnoticed in Taipei. Military strategists now envision a “hellscape” defense that would see a layered network of drones operating on air and sea around the island that would become Taiwan’s first line of defense. Taiwan has a fast-growing drone manufacturing industry involving around 260 companies on track to produce 180,000 units annually by 2028, according to Japan Times.
Drone swarming appears to be the direction the technology is heading. For example, Baykar, a Turkish drone manufacturer that had a high profile in the early days of the Ukraine conflict, just unveiled its one-way attack K2 Kamikaze drone, “featuring multi-operation capabilities and advanced AI and autonomy algorithms.” The K2 Kamikaze has “successfully completed formation flight tests with five aircraft in varying configurations.” Baykar says the K2’s swarming capabilities means it’s not just another attack drone but a “system of systems.”
Still, the endgame is the same. The K2 Kamikaze “packs a real punch,” said a Baykar executive but the real appeal may be price. A swarm of lower-cost autonomous attackers is attractive for states seeking deterrence on a budget.
Drone swarms also are attractive to nations with bigger budgets too. Elon Musk’s SpaceX and xAI firms are reportedly among those involved in a secret Pentagon program to develop autonomous swarming drones that respond to voice commands. The $100 million initiative has a six-month timeline, according to a January report by Bloomberg. That would put American drone swarms in the air sometime this summer.
