Russia is launching autonomous AI-guided drones against Ukraine in what amounts to the crossing of a new threshold in the long-running war between the two countries, according to a bombshell report in The New York Times. Drones can now pick their own target, taking humans out of life-and-death decision making. Enabling the autonomous AI decision-making is a relatively inexpensive NVIDIA minicomputer commonly used in civilian robotics and machine vision applications.

Ukrainian drone experts cited by The New York Times say the experimental Russian AI drone was programmed by human operators to fly toward a gas station. Drones are often equipped with AI navigation aids that allow the drone to follow certain flight paths. In this instance, AI aid went a step further by allowing the drone to choose the precise target, a propane tank the drone recognized thanks to its AI training. The strike, which occurred on July 6, killed three civilians.

The use of autonomous AI drones making life or death decisions on its own is alarming but feels almost inevitable as both drones and AI are increasingly front-line technologies. It also speaks to what may appear to be advances in AI target acquisition skills. Until now, militaries tried to keep a human in the loop, especially during the moments just prior to the final approach, if only to avoid “friendly fire” casualties on a battlefield with similarly clad soldiers. On the final approach, AI was principally used to foil radio signal jamming. There is also a risk that an autonomous AI drone may react in unanticipated ways as it analyzes challenging situations.

Targeting decisions were made by the onboard NVIDIA Jetson Orin computer module, say Ukrainian forensic investigators. A lack of antennas on the recovered drone pointed toward AI autonomy, a suspicion that was later confirmed. The NVIDIA chips were not encrypted so investigators could see the terrain landmarks and the type of targets the drone had been trained to recognize and attack. The NVIDIA module costs only a few hundred dollars and is widely available through resellers. The recovered NVIDIA module carried a “Made In China” stamp. Ukraine says an Nvidia Jetson Orin module also was found in the wreckage of a Russian S-71M Monochrome missile and was likely used for AI-enhanced guidance.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that Ukraine may have tested autonomous AI drones as early as mid-2024, enabling a “Terminator” mode to attack Russian soldiers without human oversight. “Friendly fire” concerns may have forestalled its development. Ukraine is currently using AI-navigation aids in drone swarm attacks against Moscow and economic targets. Ukraine’s Wild Hornets, maker of the popular Sting interceptor drone, says it will integrate AI into every aspect of flight operations, including “terminal guidance.”

NATO, meanwhile, said last week it plans to create an AI-assisted drone wall on its eastern flank stretching from northern Finland to the Black Sea. NATO says it is committed to keeping humans in the loop for drone operations. Complicating matters, however, is the decision by the U.S. Army to disband a recently created drone assault battalion deployed in Germany. The 600-man drone fighters of 173rd Airborne Brigade had been the flagship project of General Randy George, ousted in April by defense secretary Pete Hegseth. The drone assault battalion, tasked with turning Ukrainian drone war tactics into American doctrine, is to be returned to a basic rifle-carrying force next month, according to General Christopher LaNeve, the Army’s new acting chief of staff. The decision mystifies most military analysts who see more bayonets as a retro move contrary to the direction of modern warfare.

Ukraine defense officials believe Russia’s autonomous AI drones still may be in a training stage. How autonomous AI drones evolve remains to be seen but past speculation has centered on the addition of facial recognition software that would identify key military commanders for targeting, for example. In any event, it appears that the dystopian nightmare of autonomous AI drones carrying out attacks without human oversight is now a relatively cheap reality.